The San Francisco Chronicle speculates that Gilead's acquisition of Pharmasset...at a premium... may start a trend of other companies vested heavily in the antiviral arena buying similar, smaller companies with potentially commercially viable molecules in development. I don't know if we'll see this large a premium paid for a company again in the near future, but the article does name Inhibitex, Achillion and Idenix Pharmaceuticals as possible takeover targets by antiviral behemoths like J&J, BMS and Roche.
Gilead's Pharmasset buy may spur similar deals
Meg Tirrell,Tara Lachapelle, Bloomberg News
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Gilead Sciences' acquisition of Pharmasset at the highest valuation on record for a drug takeover is turning makers of hepatitis C therapies from Inhibitex to Achillion Pharmaceuticals into the next targets.
Gilead agreed Monday to buy Pharmasset for $10.8 billion, valuing the developer of an experimental, oral treatment at 70 times its net assets, the most ever for a medical drug acquisition greater than $500 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price is 94 percent higher than Pharmasset's 20-day average, also the industry's richest on record. Applying that premium, Inhibitex would cost $1.1 billion, Achillion $791 million, and Idenix Pharmaceuticals $1.3 billion, the data show.
With the market for the next generation of hepatitis C therapies potentially worth $20 billion by 2020, Inhibitex, Achillion and Idenix may be bought within a year, William Blair & Co. said. While Gilead suffered its steepest stock drop in a year and a half Monday, and none of these unprofitable biotechnology companies have a hepatitis C drug for sale yet, the other targets would require no more than a fifth of the price for Pharmasset even with the same premium, the data show.
Waves of deals
"These deals tend to happen in waves," said Dan Veru, who oversees $3.4 billion including Pharmasset shares as chief investment officer of Palisade Capital Management LLC. "It's amazing to me that Gilead's willing to gamble $11 billion. It is a statement on the future opportunity to the market. Hepatitis C is an enormous business target."
Foster City's Gilead, the world's largest maker of HIV medicines, is paying $137 a share in cash for Pharmasset to gain an oral drug in development for a virus that is now largely treated with injections. The price tag is 70 times its book value, or the value of its assets minus liabilities, topping the industry's previous record of 60 times when Barr Laboratories Inc. bought Duramed Pharmaceuticals Inc. in 2001, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Pharmasset reported earlier this month that 40 patients who received its experimental hepatitis C treatment, PSI-7977, were responsive after 12 weeks. About half the patients had been followed up to 24 weeks and were all cured with no significant adverse events. The drug was tested in combination with ribavirin, a medication currently used in treating the disease, in patients with hepatitis C genotypes 2 and 3. Genotype 1 is most common and hardest to treat.
Hepatitis C is a viral infection that can lead to swelling of the liver. As many as 170 million people globally carry the virus, which is transmitted through exposure to infected blood, and more than 350,000 die from related illnesses each year, according to the World Health Organization.
"Hepatitis C is very prevalent in the population," said Andrew Berens, a senior health care analyst with Bloomberg Industries. "A lot of the market opportunity is going to expand if you have an all-oral regimen. We're going to see a land grab to try and get companies that are developing them."
Shares tripled
Even after Pharmasset's shares more than tripled this year before the deal was announced, the price is still 94 percent higher than its 20-day average of $70.65. That's a record for a takeover greater than $500 million in the drug industry, which has fetched an average premium of only 25 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
"Usually we associate these kinds of premiums with biotech bull markets, but it also can be a function of other possible bidders, scarcity and stage of assets," said Les Funtleyder, a health strategist and portfolio manager at Miller Tabak & Co., which owns Pharmasset shares. "If anybody was thinking about doing something in hepatitis C, they would be thinking a lot harder today than they would be yesterday."
Pharmaceutical companies that may look to expand in the market for hepatitis C treatments include Roche Holding AG, Merck & Co., Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. and Johnson & Johnson, according to Funtleyder and Brian Skorney, an analyst at Brean Murray Carret & Co.
These companies are "all heavily invested in the antiviral arena," Skorney said. "Worldwide this is a huge, huge market opportunity."
Market data provided by Bloomberg News
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/11/22/BUBM1M2KS9.DTL#ixzz1eV5AwfCx
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