Barclays analyst on GILEAD and IDENIX....

Original article posted on StreetInsider.com 2/10/12 - This is an article a good friend pointed out to me earlier today. If a combo of one nucleoside inhibitor and ribavirin can become a dominant therapy type for HCV - a virus notorious for excessively high, error-prone replication and an uncanny ability to evade the host immune system - then I'm in.  To my mind however, that's either excessively positive thinking or a typo.


Barclays on U.S. Pharma: A New Era for Hep C Therapy - Starts Coverage on GILD & IDIX

Analyst, C. Anthony Butler, said, "The race towards developing the second-generation of direct antivirals (DAAs) may be a dead-heat. By the end of this decade, we believe two dominant therapy types will emerge for hepatitis C (HCV) patients: 1) a combination of a nucleotide polymerase inhibitor (Nuc) and ribavirin; and 2) a cocktail of a nucleotide polymerase inhibitor and one or two DAAs of other mechanisms."

"GILD has leapfrogged competitors through the bold acquisition of Pharmasset, and its stock move (+32.7% YTD vs NASDAQ +11.8%) reflects the market sentiment that GILD is leading the HCV race. We estimate that GILD could capture ~40% of the US HCV market by 2020 and US sales would peak at $2.8B in 2017."

"IDIX needs to find a home for its Nuc IDX184 in order to remain a contender."

Currently, shares of IDIX are trading down 1.25% and shares of GILD are flat on the session.