Achillion Pharmaceuticals HCV pipeline suddenly looking attractive...

Posted 8/29/12 on Business Week.com. Achillion Pharmaceuticals, once regarded as an also ran by Big Pharma suddenly looks sexy again as clinical holds and pipeline failures stymie drug development with Idenix and BMS. Rumors of a takeover has made Achillion stock surge in the past couple of days. The HCV drug development space continues to be one of the most dynamic in pharma, there is definitely no shortage of spills and thrills. 

Achillion Deal Looming as Hepatitis Drugs Fail: Real M&A

By Ryan Flinn and Will Robinson on August 29, 2012

Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACHN), the developer of hepatitis C treatments that was passed over by potential acquirers in the last year, is poised to draw renewed interest after setbacks by rival drugmakers.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) last week said it was abandoning an experimental hepatitis C pill it obtained through its February purchase of Inhibitex Inc. after one patient died and others were hospitalized while taking the drug in a study. This week, Idenix Pharmaceuticals Inc. said U.S. regulators halted its study of a similar therapy, marking the second hold on clinical trials for the company this month.

With the market for new hepatitis C treatments projected to reach $20 billion by 2020 and Achillion facing no delays in two drugs under development, Piper Jaffray Cos. and William Blair & Co. say the $481 million company could gain fresh attention as a takeover candidate for Merck & Co. (MRK), Roche (ROG) Holding AG and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) A suitor could pay a premium of as much as 79 percent to Achillion’s stock price and still acquire the New Haven, Connecticut-based company for less than its peak market value earlier this year, when takeovers and merger speculation spurred a surge in hepatitis C drugmakers’ shares.

“The frenzy has been taken out of the space, but I still think Achillion is very attractive” because its therapies have the potential to be the best of their type, Ted Tenthoff, a New York-based analyst for Piper Jaffray, said in a telephone interview. “We expect the wave of consolidation to continue. Achillion is clearly a target.”

Drug Development
Joe Truitt, Achillion’s chief commercial officer, said it wasn’t appropriate to comment on the company’s development plans, including the possibility of a takeover.

“We’ll make the best strategic options as they come to us, but for right now, we’re developing our drugs and getting them into combinations and making them available to patients,” Truitt said in a phone interview.

Today, shares of Achillion rose 3.5 percent to $6.86 at 9:45 a.m. in New York, the second-biggest gain among 116 stocks in the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index.

Hepatitis C is a viral infection that can cause liver damage and is estimated to affect 180 million people worldwide, according to the National Institutes of Health. Rising deaths among so-called baby boomers from the infection prompted U.S. health officials to declare in May that all of those born from 1946 to 1964 are at risk and should be tested.

Achillion is among several companies racing to develop hepatitis C cures that would replace the standard year-long injectable treatment that can cause flu-like symptoms.

Four Classes
There are four new classes of drugs under development to cure hepatitis C. Each work in different ways to stop the virus from replicating, and can be effective against one or several subtypes of the disease.

Drugmakers such as Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Achillion, Bristol- Myers, Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), Merck and Vertex have been testing these therapies, either alone or together, with varying degrees of success. The promise of a market that Achillion Chief Executive Officer Michael Kishbauch estimates will grow to $20 billion by 2020 spurred at least three acquisitions since October.

The biggest deal was Gilead’s $10.8 billion acquisition of Pharmasset Inc., announced in November, which came a month after Roche agreed to buy Anadys Pharmaceuticals Inc. for about $230 million. Bristol-Myers followed in January by announcing its $2.5 billion purchase of Inhibitex.

Fresh Look
Achillion’s Kishbauch said in November that the company was in “advanced discussions” with potential partners or acquirers. Its shares then reached a five-year high of $12.38 in February on takeover speculation before falling (ACHN) 46 percent since then as no deal materialized.

Now, with Bristol-Myers stopping development of the drug it bought from Inhibitex, and Idenix (IDIX) halting testing of a similar therapy, Achillion could attract a fresh look from companies seeking hepatitis treatments to use on their own or in combination with their existing therapies, said Liisa Bayko, a Chicago-based analyst with JMP Securities LLC.

Achillion is testing two types of drugs. By combining several classes of these new hepatitis C drugs, doctors may be able to limit the virus’ ability to infect, mimicking the strategy that a decade earlier helped turn HIV from a killer disease to a controlled one.

During the first quarter, Achillion will be reporting on how effective its two therapies work in combination. Good data could entice competitors to bid, Bayko said.

‘Well-Positioned’
“By the first quarter of next year, we could be a very different company,” Achillion’s Truitt said. “If that combination data comes through, then we really have a commercially viable, competitive combination that will put everybody on notice.”

“We’re pretty optimistic for Achillion,” Bayko said in a phone interview. “They’ll be well-positioned to be a candidate to be taken out, because right now, there are very few options if you want to get involved in hep C, in terms of combinations that are more advanced that are still in clinical development.”

Bayko said that while she expects a suitor to wait for the data on the drugs before making an offer, Achillion still could fetch as much as $10 a share if a company bid for it now, 51 percent more than its closing price yesterday.

Piper Jaffray’s Tenthoff said Achillion could lure suitors such as Merck, Roche and Vertex as they seek to compete against Gilead, which is seen by analysts as having the most promising hepatitis C drug. Gilead is poised to start testing two of its therapies together in a single pill this year, putting it on track to request U.S. regulatory approval for the drug in 2014.

Gilead Bid
Ronald Rogers, a spokesman for Merck, said the company doesn’t comment on speculation when asked whether the Whitehouse Station, New Jersey-based drugmaker was interested in Achillion, while an e-mail to Basel, Switzerland-based Roche’s media relations office wasn’t returned. Megan Pace, a spokeswoman for Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Vertex, declined to comment.

Even Gilead could seek to acquire Achillion as a way to remove a potential competitor and bolster its position, said Peter Kolchinsky, co-founder and general partner at RA Capital Management LLC, which oversees $300 million, including Achillion shares.

“Gilead could solidify its supremacy if it had Achillion’s drugs, each best in its respective class based on what we know so far,” Kolchinsky said in an interview. “Acquiring Achillion would also be a wise defensive move for Gilead, keeping it from falling into a competitor’s hands or from becoming an independent low-cost competitor.”

Safety Concerns
Cara Miller, a spokeswoman for Foster City, California- based Gilead, said the company (GILD) doesn’t comment on market speculation.

Brian Skorney, an analyst with Brean Murray Carret & Co. in New York, says Achillion won’t be a takeover target soon because it has “a lot more to prove” with clinical data next year. Other companies that developed hepatitis C treatments like Pharmasset and Inhibitex proved their drugs were effective before they were bought, and the only remaining question about their products was safety, he said.

The safety problems that challenged the drug Bristol-Myers bought from Inhibitex and the regulatory holds that Idenix faces show how much risk is still left in the market for hepatitis C treatments, said Les Funtleyder, a fund manager focused on the health-care industry at New York-based Poliwogg.

“What’s that phrase, ‘Once burned, twice shy?’” Funtleyder said in a phone call. “If someone was to repeat what happened to Bristol, shareholders would start to ask questions about management’s judgment.”

Cheaper Now
Still, after the drop in Achillion’s stock this year, a buyer would be taking on the risk of the therapies potentially failing at a lower price tag.

During the past 12 months, acquirers that announced deals for biomedical companies paid 65 percent more than the target’s average 20-day stock price in transactions greater than $500 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A bidder for Achillion could offer a premium of as much 79 percent to yesterday’s stock price and still get the drugmaker for less than its record market value of $863 million in February.

The market for treating the viral infection is too big to be dominated by Gilead alone, so large drugmakers may have the appetite to acquire a company such as Idenix or Achillion once they produce sufficient data on the safety and effectiveness of their drugs, said Y. Katherine Xu, a New York-based analyst at William Blair. Kelly Barry, a spokeswoman for Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Idenix, didn’t return a voicemail message and e-mail sent after business hours about whether the company has been approached by suitors.

“Both Idenix and Achillion, their strategy is to sell themselves,” Xu said. “Timeline-wise, these two used to be similar, but now Achillion may be a little bit ahead.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Ryan Flinn in San Francisco at rflinn@bloomberg.net; Will Robinson in New York at wrobinson11@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Sarah Rabil at srabil@bloomberg.net; Reg Gale at rgale5@bloomberg.net.

Guru Focus: Idenix Pharmaceuticals Lagging Behind In Breakthrough Hepatitis C Drug Development

Posted on 7/13/12 on www.gurufocus.com. The author is worried about Idenix's pan-genotype nuc, IDX184. I'm not as worried, but Idenix definitely needs other drugs beside it's own to pair IDX184 with - preferably those well into Phase IIb or Phase III studies.  Those are drugs that are most likely to make it to market first, barring any errant new safety signals that would gum up the works and put pinholes in the dreams of investors everywhere. A good example to follow is Medivr/Janssen's protease inhibitor TMC435. That partnership has done an outstanding job of partnering with every company with a drug that looks hopeful, expanding their status as the 'preferred partner' drug in every combination that looks effective and safe.  On the other hand, we've learned in HIV that a good, potent, well-tolerated nuc (preferably ones with a unique resistance profile) will always come in handy. A good drug never has to worry. Only the company developing it does. 

Idenix Pharmaceuticals Lagging Behind In Breakthrough Hepatitis C Drug Development
July 13, 2012

Idenix Pharmaceuticals (IDIX) is one of the biopharmaceutical companies focused on discovering, developing and commercializing drugs for the treatment of life-threatening human viral diseases such as Hepatitis C. Hepatitis C is a form of liver disease that is passed on from one person to another through contact of bodily fluids. The Hepatitis C virus can severely damage the liver as it is asymptomatic and therefore, the effects are slowly felt over a long period of time. Hepatitis C has the potential to kill if not detected early enough.

It is estimated that 75% to 85% of Hepatitis C infections become chronic, leading to serious liver disease such as cirrhosis and may even causing liver cancer. Researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that about 50% of the 3.2 million Americans who have chronic Hepatitis C do not know about it. This is frightening to say the least, given that Hepatitis C is now estimated to be killing more Americans than HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. The Hepatitis C virus has also been found to be more prevalent in the "baby boomer" generation born between 1945 and 1964. This was a time when casual sharing of needles and drug use was the norm. I was floored to discover that the current worldwide figure of persons considered to be living with chronic viral hepatitis stands at between 480 million and 540 million, with approximately 130 million to 170 million of them infected with the Hepatitis C virus.

IDX184 is a pan-genotypic oral nucleotide polymerase inhibitor and Idenix Pharmaceutical’s lead product for the treatment of Hepatitis C. It is Idenix’s belief that the Hepatitis C treatment paradigm will evolve rapidly within the next three to five years as various companies continue to develop direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) from different drug classes. The treatments would potentially reduce the duration of treatment from one year to six months or less, increase the sustained virologic response rates and improve drug tolerability. It would also be extremely convenient as patients would be able to take all the drugs orally. I believe this is significant as the side effects associated with the combination of Interferon and Ribaravin during treatment disqualify many Hepatitis C-infected candidates from undergoing the treatment. Therefore, a breakthrough in this area would be a huge stride for Idenix and has the potential to affect its share price positively. Idenix Pharmaceuticals has also co-developed a Hepatitis B drug candidate, telbivudine, with Norvatis Pharma AG (NVS). The product is commercially sold as Tyzeka®, and Idenix Pharmaceuticals earns royalties from the product sales.

Idenix Pharmaceuticals stock began trading on July 2004 with an initial public offering of 5.8 million shares at $14 per share. On 23 April, 2012 Idenix Pharmaceuticals gained 6.5% to even out at slightly below $9. Earlier in March 2012 the share price had traded at an average of $12. Idenix Pharmaceuticals released its fourth quarter and financial results for the year ending Dec. 31, 2011 in February. Its total revenue was $7 million compared to 10.2 million in the year ending Dec. 31, 2010. The company recorded a net loss of $52 million on Dec. 31, 2011 as compared to $61.6 million on Dec. 31, 2010. The share price seems to fluctuate a lot so if you’re looking to trade in stock it is probably advisable to consider day-trading or swing-trading as compared to making a long-term investment.

Another competitor, Gilead Sciences (GILD) made astronomical progress in April 2012, when a mid-stage clinical trial revealed that a combination of the GS-7977 drug and the antiviral Ribaravin cleared the virus in approximately 88% of the patients. The GS-7977 drug was administered together with Ribaravin, completely eliminating the need for the injectable interferon. Gilead Sciences is the world’s largest HIV drug maker, so this news comes as no surprise.

Gilead’s shares have evened out at an average of $51 after they jumped from about $47 to an average of $53. These developments have clearly placed Gilead Sciences ahead of the pack, and I would not hesitate to recommend trading its shares.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) is also in the process of carrying out a study to evaluate the effectiveness of a Hepatitis C treatment on patients who are not on antiretroviral therapy for HIV versus those who are on a Atripla- or Reyataz-based treatment for HIV. Vertex Pharmaceuticals is carrying out the study in collaboration with Janssen, one of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)'s pharmaceutical companies. The study is intended to evaluate the safety and tolerability of the Incivek drug combination therapy in patients infected with both the Hepatitis C virus and HIV. The drug is marketed in the U.S. and Canada and is also available in the Far East and Japan.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals stock is trading at an average of $37. January 2012 was a terrible month for Vertex with their share price dipping to $34 after an analyst at Leerink Swann reduced the sales forecast for Incivek from $2.3 billion to $1.5 billion this year, citing recent developments of interferon-free regimens and the possibility of more aggressive developments. There is a great need for Hepatitis C treatment and more so amongst those infected with HIV. If Vertex Pharmaceuticals manages to develop a drug that can be safely used to treat those co-infected with Hepatitis C and HIV then it is safe to say that it will be worth your while to invest in Vertex Pharmaceuticals.

Victrelis, a product of Merck & Co. (MRK), was approved for the U.S. market by the Food and Drug Administration just last year for the treatment of Hepatitis C. It is surprising therefore when I learned from my research that the drug’s effectiveness is lowered when used in combination with some antiretroviral therapy drugs. It’s not all bad news though. Merck recently agreed to pay Endocyte (ECYT) up to $1 billion to develop and commercially market Vintafolide, an experimental cancer drug. Merck will own all the global rights meaning that a surge in sales will push its share price upwards. Merck is currently trading at an average of $28 and its future outlook does not look very promising at the moment.

Abbot Laboratories (ABT)'s main line of business is in the discovery, development, manufacture and sale of a wide range of health care products. Abbot Laboratories released data earlier in April 2012 from a mid-stage clinical trial that indicated combining ABT-450 boosted by an antiviral, Ritonavir, along with Ribaravin and a polymerase inhibitor achieved a 95% cure rate. Deutsche Bank consequently boosted Abbot Laboratories rating to “Buy” in March 2012 with a price target of $70. The share price is currently trading at slightly under $60. I’d say this is pretty close to what analysts at Deutsche Bank projected. Abbot Laboratories is in the process of separating into two healthcare companies by the end of the year, so it is advisable to carry out day trading and keep a close eye on the share price.

J&J open to partnering with Vertex in HCV drug development...

Posted on 4/20/12 on Bloomberg.com. The growing body of evidence in HCV drug development suggests that alliances are important (unless you happen to be Gilead) especially with partners that are owned by deep-pocketed, well diversified organizations like Johnson and Johnson.  Hopefully J&J can put back some luster on Vertex's non-nuc VX-222. Actually, despite it's inherent relative lower barrier of resistance, it's a good drug - QD dosing, pretty powerful, clean and low potential for drug interactions. Just needs the right partners in a regimen. TMC435 may be one of 'em - QD dosing, powerful, no need for ritonavir and thus no ritonavir baggage - sounds good on paper, anyway. 


J&J Open to Expanding Hepatitis C Cooperation With Vertex
By Makiko Kitamura - Apr 20, 2012 8:09 AM PT

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)’s Janssen unit said it may explore widening cooperation on hepatitis C with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX) that may develop in tandem with a separate partnership with Medivir AB (MVIRB) on the disease.

“We remain open to see if we can expand our collaboration,” Gaston Picchio, vice president of Janssen’s global clinical virology and hepatitic disease area, said in an interview today in Barcelona, where he’s attending the European Association for the Study of the Liver annual meeting. “Vertex has announced plans for developing interferon-free therapies. We are partners, so that puts us in a better position to be a part of that,” should studies prove to be promising.

Vertex said on April 18 that it will start enrolling patients in a mid-stage study combining three medicines, excluding interferon, a core component of the current standard of care. Vertex and competitors including Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD), Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) and Abbott Laboratories (ABT) are racing to develop next-generation treatments for hepatitis C that exclude interferon because of flu-like side effects.

Vertex and J&J collaborated to develop telaprevir, marketed as Incivek by Vertex in North America and as Incivo by Janssen in other regions including Europe. The drug was approved by regulators last year as a treatment for hepatitis C in combination with interferon and ribavirin.
Medivir Project

J&J, which has its headquarters in New Brunswick, New Jersey, is also developing the protease inhibitor TMC435 with Huddinge, Sweden-based Medivir, which has said mid-stage trials of the drug in interferon-free combinations with Gilead’s 7977 and with Bristol-Myers’s daclatasvir experimental drugs are starting in the second quarter.

While J&J and Medivir are also developing the TMC647 polymerase inhibitor, Vertex’s VX-222 compound in the same class of drugs is further along in development. VX-222 is one of the three drugs included in Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Vertex’s mid-stage interferon-free treatment study.

Meanwhile, J&J is also “committed” to improving the labeling of Incivo by conducting further trials that examine less frequent dosage as well as efficacy in patients also infected by the HIV virus and those who have had liver transplants, Picchio said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Makiko Kitamura in Barcelona via mkitamura1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Phil Serafino at pserafino@bloomberg.net

The Street.com: EASL Gives Wall Street's Privileged Investors Sneaky Preview to Key Hep C Data

Article posted on The Street.com on 3/20/12. Spring is in the air, and that means that one of the most important meetings in HCV drug development - EASL - is right around the corner.  The Street author Adam Feuerstein is none too pleased on EASL's rather elitist approach to disseminating important data ahead of time to only a chosen, privileged few. He's right - and he's also right that EASL's attempt at keeping this data embargoed until the actual start of the conference is pert near impossible.  The time has come for reform and revolution. I'd be right there on the front lines, but there's too much good stuff on TV. 

EASL Gives Wall Street's Privileged Investors Sneaky Preview to Key Hep C Data

By Adam Feuerstein    03/20/12 - 10:45 AM

Update: After this column was published, EASL announced a delay in the release of research abstracts for the International Liver Congress to Tues. March 27.

BARCELONA (TheStreet) -- Investing in hepatitis C drug stocks is a suckers bet this week because the European Association for the Study of the Liver, better known as EASL, has rigged the game so that Wall Street's privileged investors get a sneak peek at new clinical data ahead of an important and closely followed conference next month.

EASL's International Liver Congress, taking place April 18-22 in Barcelona, is the must-follow medical meeting of the spring. Gilead Sciences, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Abbott, Idenix Pharmaceuticals, Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Merck are among the companies rolling out new clinical data on experimental hepatitis C therapies.

But if you want an advance look at potentially market-moving hepatitis C drug data, you'll have to be an EASL member or a registered attendee of the EASL meeting -- a group which includes hedge fund and mutual fund portfolio managers and sell-side analysts, all of whom can pay for early access.

EASL plans to selectively distribute hepatitis C drug research abstracts to these folks on Thursday. The same documents will not be made available to the public. That means a select group of investors will have access to potentially stock-moving clinical data while a majority of investors will be kept in the dark.

Journalists registered to cover the EASL meeting will also be granted early access to hepatitis C research abstracts but they are barred by EASL's restrictive embargo rules from writing about any new data until the start of the April meeting.

EASL's abstract distribution policy is misguided, unfair and quite frankly unworkable. Smarter medical and scientific groups like the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) realized years ago that trying to compartmentalize research abstracts was futile. Information cannot be selectivity disclosed and expected not to leak, especially information that will weigh on the market valuations of biotech and drug firms involved in new hepatitis C drug research.

That's why most medical and scientific groups made research abstracts freely available to everyone in advance of major conferences.

Jacqui Sisto, an EASL spokesperson, explained via email that selective disclosure of research abstracts "ensures the integrity of the International Liver Congress." Really? EASL appears to be corrupting its most important meeting, not making it more honest.